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Global ferrous steel scrap markets forecast up to 2030 – 2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Ferrous steel scrap market outlook, trends and forecasts. Executive summary

 

  • Steel scrap is a vital component of the recycling industry, playing a crucial role in the production of new steel. Recycling steel scrap conserves natural resources, reduces energy consumption, and lowers greenhouse gas emissions compared to primary steel production from iron ore. The use of steel scrap in electric arc furnaces significantly decreases the environmental impact of steelmaking, aligning with global sustainability goals.
  • Ferrous steel scrap is a critical component of "green steel" projects because its use can drastically reduce CO2 emissions compared to traditional steel production. The steel industry is one of the world's largest emitters of CO2, with conventional methods using coal-fired blast furnaces to produce steel from iron ore. This process releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide. Green steel projects rely heavily on EAFs, which use electricity to melt scrap metal and turn it into new steel. An EAF can produce a metric ton of steel with about X percent less CO2 emissions compared to a blast furnace. Producing new steel from recycled scrap requires up to X percent less energy than making it from virgin raw materials. This significant energy saving also translates into a massive reduction in the carbon footprint.
  • The circular nature of steel, where it can be recycled indefinitely without loss of quality, makes steel scrap a cornerstone of the circular economy. The growing emphasis on sustainable practices is driving the importance of and demand for steel scrap in the recycling industry. Global ferrous scrap consumption for crude steel production was estimated at X million mt in 2024 and is projected to reach X million mt by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of X percent from 2024 to 2030, according to SteelOrbis’ estimates. This annual report provides an in-depth analysis of market trends, drivers and forecasts, helping you make informed business decisions.
  • The growth in the ferrous scrap market is driven by several factors. The increasing focus on sustainability and environmental regulations is encouraging the use of recycled materials in steel production. The rising cost of raw materials and the economic benefits of recycling are also boosting demand for steel scrap, in addition to the rise in overall crude steel production. The global crude steel market was estimated at X billion mt in 2024 and is projected to reach X billion mt by 2030, growing at a CAGR of X percent from 2024 to 2030, according to SteelOrbis’ estimates. Increasing construction and infrastructure development projects, especially in emerging economies, are primary growth drivers.
  • Technological advancements in recycling and processing are enhancing the quality and efficiency of steel scrap utilization. Additionally, the growth of the construction, automotive and manufacturing industries is increasing the demand for steel, further driving the need for steel scrap. These factors collectively ensure the continued growth and innovation of the steel scrap market. The adoption of advanced technologies like digitalization and automation is enhancing production efficiency and cost savings.
  • The benefits of using steel scrap are numerous, including reduced environmental impact, lower production costs and conservation of natural resources. Recycling steel scrap requires significantly less energy than producing steel from virgin materials, resulting in lower carbon emissions and reduced operational costs.
  • End-of-life scrap is foreseen to more than double from today’s X to around X million mt by 2030. Adding scrap from steel processing and internal scrap from steelmaking, we can expect a total of up to X billion mt of scrap to be available each year. However, not all of this scrap volume will be available for crude steel. Much like today, two-thirds of this scrap will be used in primary steelmaking, on EAF-basis, and as cooling scrap in remaining BOF converters.
  • The global ferrous steel scrap market is undergoing a major transformation, with a fundamental shift in its balance projected by 2030. The forecast indicates that the long-standing global surplus of scrap is set to disappear, turning into a deficit.  In many countries, ferrous scrap is already defined as a strategic raw material rather than a waste product and the problem is that globally there is not enough scrap. In the face of growing protectionism, countries are already beginning to compete for access to scrap and this competition will increase in the future. Steel companies have already started to focus on locking in consistent supplies, perhaps by acquiring scrap yards and by using new recycling technologies and consolidation. According to SteelOrbis’ calculations, by 2030 the current X million mt steel scrap surplus will become a X million mt deficit.
  • The global economic and political situation will have an impact on how scrap flows from one country to another, pointing toward scrap protectionism. In 2024-25, about X million mt were traded across international borders. SteelOrbis predicts that trading of the raw material will moderate significantly, to around X million mt by 2030, as domestic consumption rises and countries reduce exports.
  • Short-term global ferrous scrap price sentiments remain moderate. Downside price pressure will continue from X to X as demand has softened. SteelOrbis predicts a long-term upward trend for scrap prices, underpinned by a fundamental shift in the steelmaking industry. However, this trend will be punctuated by short-term volatility caused by economic cycles and changing trade policies. Global scrap prices are likely to remain volatile through X because of weak demand from some regions, freight and logistics and currency swings, and uneven regional supply, followed by a trend toward modest recovery up to X. A period of economic growth in X and high industrial activity will lead to higher scrap prices due to increased scrap demand and trade volumes.
  • More scrap will be used globally, but the price path will be determined by the balance between scrap supply growth and consumption volumes and global trade restrictions. Prices will vary significantly by scrap grade. High-quality, high-purity "prime" scrap will likely command a premium due to its direct use in EAFs. Regional price differences will also persist, driven by local supply and demand, as well as transportation costs.
  • However, challenges exist in the collection, sorting and processing of steel scrap to ensure consistent quality and remove impurities. Contaminants such as coatings, alloys and non-metallic materials must be effectively managed to produce high-quality recycled steel. Advances in sorting and processing technologies are addressing these challenges, improving the efficiency and quality of steel scrap recycling.
  • Technological advancements are enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of steel scrap recycling. Innovations in sorting technologies, such as magnetic separation and advanced sensor-based sorting, are improving the purity and quality of recycled steel. The development of sophisticated shredding and processing equipment is increasing the recovery rates of steel from mixed waste streams.
  • Advanced metallurgical processes are enabling the production of high-quality steel from scrap, meeting the stringent requirements of various industries. Automation and digitalization are also playing a role in optimizing recycling operations, reducing costs and increasing productivity. These technological improvements are crucial for maximizing the benefits of steel scrap recycling and supporting the growth of the industry.

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This publication has been prepared by SteelOrbis. 

SteelOrbis takes into account all the features of steel production, including capacities, origin of raw materials and production volumes. Calculations for countries are carried out according to the same methodology, which makes it possible to assess the position of countries in the global market relative to each other. All calculations are given as national averages and cannot be attributed to a specific manufacturer.

Although the data in this publication have been taken from reliable sources, their integrity, accuracy and stability/constancy cannot be guaranteed by SteelOrbis. The data in this publication are not comprised of data gathered from transactions carried within the SteelOrbis system. Reports shall in no way be taken as a basis for buying and selling. SteelOrbis A.S. is not an investment advisor, a financial advisor or a securities broker. The information published has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and is not intended for trading purposes or to address your particular requirements. SteelOrbis assumes no responsibility for losses caused by use of these data in commercial transactions. Your investment and trading actions should be solely based upon your own decisions and research.

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